Monthly Archives: October 2012

The Palo Alto Condo Market

The Woodmark

Good things are getting better in the Palo Alto Condo market. North Palo Alto witnessed some pretty spectacular sales this last quarter, most notably the sale at 325 Channing (The Woodmark), where a 3 bedroom penthouse unit sold, with multiple offers, to an all cash buyer for $2,700,000. Wow!

The biggest change from this quarter over the last quarter is the quick sale of highly priced tag units. Newer complexes and top floor units are selling quickly for a premium. A prime example is 800 High Street, where a penthouse unit recently went into contract. The property was listed at $1,988,000 and sold in 9 days. It’s rumored to be in contract for more than $2,000,000. That’s a hefty price, especially considering that the unit is only 1,607 square feet.

Why are these high priced units moving so quickly? For starters, single-family home prices in north Palo Alto have priced many buyers out of other options. Many homes, especially in north Palo Alto, are selling in excess of $1,100 per square foot of living space (see 1170 Fife). North Palo Alto Condo prices are simply chasing home prices up the price curve.

Another possible reason for the high sale prices of high-end north Palo Alto condos may be related to the recent influx of overseas buyers. For this stream of overseas buyers, condos offer a low-maintenance purchase option with great access to downtown Palo Alto.

Either way, the lesson is this: if you’re looking to sell your high-end condominium or townhome, now is the time to do it.

How to Value Luxury Real Estate

Maslow’s hierarchy of needs says that human beings make decisions first based on fulfilling their physical needs, then their safety, then the more abstract concepts of self-esteem, and finally, if all else is satisfied, decisions are made to further their self-actualization, to become “everything that one is capable of becoming.” 

Valuing high-end, luxury real estate is challenging because decision-making has climbed up Maslow’s hierarchy to those higher, abstract levels and the basic objective standards have less importance. Put another way, you don’t need a 5,000 square foot house or a view of the hills to the west or even a short walk to school. You want that. And the value you put on what you want is directly related to how many options you have in the real estate market and how many homebuyers want those same things. 

That is why a straight price-per-square-foot analysis is ineffective in putting a value on luxury real estate. It assumes fungibility — that one house of the same size and quality is substantially equivalent to another in the same time and place. 

A price-per-square-foot calculation, as well as comps provided by many real estate agents, often don’t take into account lot size, location, amenities and, most important of all, the hundreds of unique attributes people value that can’t be stuck into a Zillow algorithm. And they most definitely don’t take into account the “I’ve never seen anything quite like this” or the even more amorphous, “I just have to have it” factor. In placing a value on luxury properties, subjective ideas of what is important have a dramatic impact.

When valuing luxury real estate, you do start with the basics: bedrooms, baths, and square feet. Then you need to consider the more abstract but often more significant features of lot size and location. In this luxury market, a square foot of dirt in one neighborhood is worth a lot more than a square foot of dirt in another neighborhood. Heck, a square foot of dirt may double in value from one street to the next!

And that’s where the most subjective assessment comes into play: evaluating the property for any unique attributes for which people will pay a premium. Those unique attributes are often obvious, such as expensive finishes, a pool, a tennis court. But sometimes they can be subtle, or they can speak to only a small group of potential buyers, but speak very loudly. Is the property new construction? Is it new construction by a well-known architect? Is it new construction by a well-known architect with a hard-to-get interior designer? Is it on a cul-de-sac? Is it on the ONLY cul-de-sac? Is it a large lot? Is it the largest lot in town?

All of these factors increase value, and the amount people will pay for those attributes is a condition of local mores and the local economy. It is in this area of subjective qualities about a home where mistakes can be made and value can be lost and gained. 

Before you set a price on your home, ask yourself, “Could a buyer easily find a house similar to this one? What qualities about my house are different from other houses currently on the market?” If something about your house is truly unique, but that unique feature may speak to a smaller group of people, such as horse stables, a location within walking distance to a country club or private school, make sure you and your agent market that specific feature to that target group. 

Identifying that “hook” for potential homebuyers, speaking to their higher needs on Maslow’s hierarchy, could mean the difference of hundreds of thousands of dollars in the final sale price of your home. And while it may not be your ticket to being the best person you can be, it just might get you the best price you can get on your home. 

2012 Q3 Market Commentary

Land, they ain’t making any more of it. Buyers are channeling their inner Will Rogers as the theme for the third quarter and the mid-peninsula market seems to be the demand for land. If you are an architect, contractor or interior designer, start staffing up because we see customers coming your way as teardown purchases dominated much of the local real estate scene. Real estate agents groan as they pile up on clients who all want the same thing, a premium lot in a premium spot. And, as they get snapped up, the competition for what remains is driving prices higher.

Note: Click on images to view larger

Palo Alto

Palo Alto recorded its fifth consecutive quarterly rise as the average sale price crept over $2,000,000. For those keeping score, that is a 26% rise over the third quarter of 2011. Lack of inventory continues to cause upward pressure on prices with 6% less homes being offered for sale than what was an already a low third quarter in 2011. North Palo Alto neighborhoods were the big performer, with a 32% increase in average price versus 21% for South Palo Alto.


Menlo Park/Atherton

Prices dropped a slight notch in Menlo Park from the previous quarter as inventory increased a bit. But the average price was still well ahead of last year with a 22% increase over the third quarter of 2011. Atherton, on the other hand, was a feeding frenzy with the average sale price leaping 50%, largely on the back of some very high-end sales and a resurgence of the appetite for land from builders and end-users. 


Portola Valley/Woodside

Portola Valley had a nice 13% jump in the average price compared to Q3 2011. The story behind that jump was the demand for entry-level homes and land. Woodside continues its sluggish 2012 performance with the average price moving down 4%. Central Woodside, however, rocketed up with a 119% increase in average price as a few big ticket sales affected the numbers.


Los Altos/ Los Altos Hills

Los Altos had a bang up third quarter, posting a 22% average and 19% median jump over 2011 numbers. North Los Altos was a big performer, with 38% increases in both the median and average price. Buyers up in Los Altos Hills unleashed their demand for the pricier stuff, causing the average price to climb 24%

Tools for buying and selling condos in Palo Alto

Peter Giovannotto, my colleague at Dreyfus Properties, has recently launched a Palo Alto condo website  packed with analysis of the local condo market. Ever wondered about the 10 priciest HOA’s in North Palo Alto or last month’s condo sales? Peter has also developed a condo comparison tool to help people sell their condos at a premium price. He will soon unveil an online rent-versus-buy calculator to help buyers make wise purchase decisions. Check out his website for articles and tools. 

Palo Alto Condo Info