The Riddle of the Lindenwood Market

Annette Smith

Annette Smith knows it's all about relationships. Whether you're a homeowner, navigating all the emotional and physical transitions of selling your house, or a buyer trying to get the best deal in a competitive environment, Annette offers both the expertise of a seasoned real estate agent and the genuine care of a good friend. It's no wonder that over 90% of her business comes from referrals. Over the years, she's also developed strong relationships with other local agents who know her reputation for professionalism, creative problem solving, and integrity-qualities that give her buyers an edge in multiple offer situations. Annette's passion for people and the community where she lives and works is evident. For 20 years she has not only been a top-performing realtor, but also an active member of the Menlo Park community-sponsoring the Summer Concert Series; serving on the board of directors for Adolescent Counseling services; shepherding her kids through the local schools, and greeting neighbors as she walks her dog, Max. As someone who has been through several boom and bust real estate cycles, Annette can give clear, calm advice to help her clients achieve their real estate goals in any economic climate. Annette makes her home in the Linfield Oaks neighborhood in Menlo Park with her husband, Cary, and their two daughters.

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As I look at the statistics and try to make sense of the Lindenwood market, I am reminded of the famous Winston Churchill quote,

“It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.”

Churchill could very well have been talking about the Lindenwood real estate market. The raw data is confusing and contradictory.

Lindenwood by the Numbers

For example, we know that real estate prices have increased dramatically all over the Peninsula in the last couple of years. Yet, the median sales price in Lindenwood dropped from $5,675,000 in Q3 2013 to $4,840,000 in Q3 2014. Those numbers would make you think that the market was hotter a year ago.

However, the average Days on Market in Q3 2013 were 43 vs. 15 in the same time period this year. So houses were selling much more quickly this year, indicating a much more competitive market this year.

Also, the average home sold for about 4% less than list price last year, compared to about 3% more than list price this year. Not a dramatic difference in terms of percentage, but another indication that this year’s market is better.

Making Sense of the Statistics

To continue with Churchill’s quote,

“But perhaps there is a key.”

Yes, there is a key to understanding the relationship of the data to what’s really going on in the market.

First, the number of home sales in Lindenwood is so small (only five in each respective quarter) that you need to look very closely to determine a trend. When you look at the individual listings and sales transactions, a pattern emerges from the puzzle.

Last year at this time, three out of the five homes sales were new homes that sold for top-of-the market prices, driving the median up. The other two were older homes—one was 17 years old and the other was 65 years old.

In contrast, this quarter four out of the five sales were for homes between 56 and 73 years old—teardowns sold for the value of the lots. The fifth home was 20 years old, so it was worth more than lot value, but not nearly as much as a brand new home.

The Lindenwood Market Today

Here’s what I know about the Lindenwood market right now, looking at the data and the houses currently active and pending:

The value for land with teardown homes is at a premium—and these properties are selling quickly. We’re seeing lots selling for between $4-5 million, often over asking price, and closing in less than a month. People want to build their own homes and get exactly what they want.

Brand new homes that are done well, are also selling at a premium. While many people want to build their own custom home, many others want the convenience of moving into a brand new home with beautiful finishes without having to go through the hassle and time of building themselves. While these homes are selling for high prices, they are taking longer to sell. That’s typical across all Peninsula markets for the higher end homes.

The homes in the middle—those not old enough to be teardowns, but not brand new—are also selling, but price and time on the market all depends on the condition of the home and its location.

Inventory in Lindenwood is distressingly low. There are many more interested buyers than there are properties for sale.

If you are thinking of selling, now is a fantastic time. I’d love to talk to you about what your home is worth and how I can help you get the most money for it. And if you want to buy in Lindenwood, I’d love to listen to what you want and help you find the perfect property for you.